There is no “should” in baccarat

One of the oldest misconceptions in gambling is that the dice, cards or wheel “should” do something based upon what’s happened so far. This is called the “gamblers fallacy” because the dice, cards or wheel have no memory. The same probability exists anew each time, and in the case of baccarat, it’s 50/50.

While it can boggle the mind that Player has come up twelve times in a row, that does not correlate that Banker is somehow now more likely to show up than it did before. The probability hasn’t changed. If something is 50/50, then that’s what it is, period. There is no increase or decrease in the probability of the next event being any different. Anymore than a coin toss favors one side over the other just because of how many heads or tails appear in a sequence. Every event is independent.

Though it’s unlikely that you’d see 100 heads (or 100 tails) in a row, it’s entirely possible. Regardless of what’s happened before, the probability of each new flip of the coin remains 50/50.

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